The Ledger

"Extend and pretend" is not a post-GFC invention. It is a century-old instinct. In Part II of our Summer Series, we explore how debt deferral, maturity wall fears, and strategic inaction have repeated across cycles, from 1930s bank policy to 1990s Japan to today's CRE market. With historical quotes, visuals, and behavioral insight, we examine why delay often becomes the most rational path, until it no longer is.

As capital markets recalibrate around sustainability and obsolescence risk, the office sector faces a stark financing divide. Modern, green assets are commanding tighter spreads and higher leverage, while legacy buildings are being priced out of the debt market entirely. In this analysis, we explore how lenders are redrawing the underwriting rulebook and what it means for the future of office real estate.

New ECB data shows climate risk is no longer a theoretical threat in commercial real estate. It’s being priced into asset values, liquidity, and investor behavior. From physical risk discounts to the premium on future-ready assets, the shift is reshaping capital flows across the eurozone.